Kalshi Pulled AI-Compute Curve After Commerce Order: Semafor

The Commerce Department last month ordered prediction-market platform Kalshi to take down its AI-compute forward curve, citing "national security concerns," Semafor reported. Kalshi complied.

The product aggregated betting-market data into a curve for the future cost of renting Nvidia GPUs. Counterparties named in the reporting include CoreWeave, CME, NYSE parent Intercontinental Exchange, and fintech venue Architect Financial Technologies. Commerce, according to the same account, also pressed the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to pause approvals of new compute contracts for 60 days.

Then Commerce denied it. "This story is false," a Commerce spokesman told Semafor, adding that the department "has never once asked Kalshi to take down this market or any other markets." Kalshi did not comment. The individual underlying betting markets stayed live even as the aggregated dashboard came down.

The account is single-sourced so far and its named-source content is thin: no CFTC official on record, no Kalshi executive, no counterparty. Market participants told Semafor the concern is manipulation, with artificially depressed older-chip prices rippling into AI-related stocks and debt while the contracts still trade in thin volume. This lands inside the run of regulation coverage we've been logging this quarter.