FT Survey: 94 Economists See AI Lifting G20, Africa Lagging

A majority of 94 economists polled by the Financial Times across Asia, the US and Europe expect AI to lift productivity across most G20 countries over the next decade, with a median forecast of roughly 1.5% added to annual global output. Fifty-four percent said gains would reach many or nearly all G20 members, and most still did not foresee sustained unemployment, even as administrative, customer-service and junior professional roles come under pressure.

Thirty-two respondents warned weak infrastructure put African nations including Nigeria, Somalia and Ethiopia at particular risk of falling behind. The Philippines, Mexico and Indonesia were flagged as vulnerable because of reliance on labor-cost advantages in automation-susceptible sectors.

The optimistic case was carried by named adopters. Vanguard chief economist Jumana Saleheen told the FT that "economies that adopt and expand AI use would benefit beyond the places developing the technology." WPI Strategy's Martin Beck added that "countries need not develop frontier AI because gains can come through adoption, AI-enabled imports, knowledge spillovers and cheaper goods," while Cambridge's Dame Diane Coyle said AI "would change the character of jobs but did not expect a collapse in employment."

Dissenters sketched a sharper divergence. TAC Economics' Lea Dauphas argued "faster productivity growth among early adopters could increase those countries' capacity for further AI investment and compound the gap," and the European Policy Centre's Philipp Lausberg warned AI "could erode existing comparative advantages faster than countries could develop new advantages." LSE's Luis Garicano said "increasing restrictions on adoption and Europe's lack of presence throughout the supply chain made Europe vulnerable." The findings land alongside our running coverage of AI-and-jobs stories tracking the same disruption at firm level.