IDC: FCC Robot Curbs to Cut US Humanoid Revenue 58% by 2030

The U.S. humanoid robot market will be nearly 60% smaller in 2030 than it would otherwise have been, according to a new International Data Corporation projection Fortune reported on Thursday. "IDC's trade policy model puts U.S. humanoid robot revenue 58% below the pre-restriction baseline by 2030," the firm says, with over $6 billion in lost revenue by the end of the decade and annual sector growth sliding to about 9%, down from 13%.

The trigger is a July 28 Federal Communications Commission order that added "foreign-produced advanced robotic devices" to its Covered List, blocking new models from obtaining the authorization needed for U.S. imports and sales. Previously authorized models can still be imported and sold, and some software and firmware updates are permitted through at least Jan. 1, 2029. Vendors can pursue conditional approval for new models through a national-security review that requires commitments to relocate manufacturing to the U.S.

The gap IDC is modeling is enormous because of who already sits on the supply. Chinese vendors "such as Unitree and AGIBOT, account for roughly 95% of global humanoid shipments, according to IDC." China and the U.S. make up 21% and 18% of global consumption respectively; Europe buys more than double the U.S. share.

On Oct. 23, the FCC granted a one-year waiver to Intel Corporation to keep updating and maintaining some of its robots. Intel had claimed that "its automated guided vehicles were essential to domestic semiconductor manufacturing, and that no domestic alternative existed."

Humanoid shipments are accelerating fast enough that the catch-up window is tight. Vendors shipped an estimated 25,000 humanoid robots during the first six months of 2026, 26% more than the 18,500 shipped in all of 2025, and IDC projects more than 750,000 units shipped by 2030. "U.S. startups have even resorted to smuggling robot parts in their luggage," The Information reported in early August.

Household cleaning robots fare better in IDC's model, shrinking only 18% by 2030 thanks to an already-established inventory of certified units. Competition from China helped send iRobot, the maker of the Roomba, into bankruptcy; the company was snapped up by its China-based supplier, Shenzhen Picea Robotics. The alert joins 171 robotics items we have tracked in the last 90 days.