SpaceX Pushes 13GW Data Center Target by 2027, SemiAnalysis Says

SemiAnalysis's latest energy model has SpaceX aiming for 13GW of data center capacity by 2027, revised up from an initial 10GW target, with roughly 3.6GW already under construction at sites it names as Colossus 2 near Memphis, a two-building complex at Starbase in Texas, and a 'TeraFab' project. In the SemiAnalysis report, authors Reyk Knuhtsen, Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros and Dylan Patel write: "This would be the largest amount of datacenter capacity ever built by any one company in that timeframe, roughly equivalent to all of Google's datacenter capacity from 1999-2026 in just 1.5 years."

A chunk of the build is leaning on behind-the-meter power rather than the grid. The report tracks more than 8GW of behind-the-meter capacity under Musk's management and says Colossus 2 "could soon house the largest BESS deployment in the world, with 5.9GWh already being installed, and more to come." A 500kV gas-insulated substation adds about 1.2GW of grid connection at the Colossus 2 site on top of that.

The construction tempo is the part most inviting skepticism. SemiAnalysis says SpaceX's first retrofit at Colossus 1 took 122 days for 150MW, and Colossus 2 took just 91 days for 210MW; it describes a Mississippi plot the authors call 'Gun Range' coming online in roughly four months and a Memphis facility called 'MiniHard' in about five. "To our knowledge, this would be the fastest greenfield datacenter ever built at scale," the authors write.

The expansion is also running into live AI-power politics. A federal judge let the NAACP's Clean Air Act suit over xAI's Memphis gas turbines proceed last week, and the report notes the project is required to cut turbine nameplate capacity from 2.7GW to 1.24GW by July 2027.