TrendForce: Notebook Output Outside China Slips to 21% in 2026

The share of the world's notebooks built outside China is going backwards. TrendForce's October 8 note puts non-China production at roughly 24% in 2025, 21% in 2026, and potentially below 20% in 2027, reversing years of brand-led diversification into Vietnam, Thailand, India, and Mexico.

The reason is cost, not policy. For a mainstream $900 notebook, CPU, DRAM, and SSD together ran "around 68% of the BOM cost" in Q3 2026. With memory suppliers prioritising AI-server allocations, that bill is not easing soon. "The primary risk facing the market in 2027 is expected to shift from supply constraints to the impact of rising costs on demand," the research firm wrote.

The implication for PC brands is blunt. "Brands are therefore unlikely to be able to maintain pricing, specifications, and profitability simultaneously," TrendForce said, as relayed by 9to5Mac. Global shipments are expected to slip by a low-single-digit range in 2027, widening to high-single-digit if full cost increases flow through.

TrendForce's view is that if tariff pressure does not intensify further, the factors guiding manufacturing decisions will shift from policy risk toward production efficiency and supply-chain completeness, prompting brands to "move some capacity back to China." DRAM availability is expected to remain constrained because AI servers keep absorbing it; NAND Flash constraints could ease in the second half of 2027 as new capacity comes online.

The story sits inside a wider run of AI-infrastructure coverage pulling the same way, including the 452 AI infrastructure items we have logged over the last 90 days as hyperscalers crowd out everyone else at the memory suppliers' door.