TrendForce pegs iPhone 18 Pro BOM ~38% higher on memory surge

Memory has become the single most expensive component in a top-end iPhone for the first time, and Apple is planning to swallow part of the increase rather than pass it through in full. TrendForce estimates that the bill of materials for the 256GB iPhone 18 Pro will run about 38% higher year over year than the 2025 model, driven almost entirely by memory. DRAM and NAND now account for roughly 34% of BOM in Q3 2026, up from around 10% a year earlier, and the firm expects that share to surpass 40% in the first half of 2027.

The trigger is a straight-line squeeze on component pricing. TrendForce puts the rise in memory prices at five- to sevenfold since the beginning of 2025, enough to push memory past the A20 Pro application processor and the OLED display to become the priciest part in the phone. Apple's playbook, per the firm, mirrors its recent MacBook launches: sacrifice part of gross margin to soften the retail price bump and defend shipment volume.

For Android makers the room to maneuver is thinner. TrendForce flags entry-level and mid-range devices as the most exposed, arguing many brands will have no choice but to implement substantial price increases or discontinue product lines that have slipped into negative gross margins. Global smartphone production is expected to stay under downward pressure from the back half of 2026 through 2027.

This is a single research firm's estimate rather than an Apple disclosure, and the note stops short of putting a dollar figure on the BOM, naming which memory vendors win the orders, or quantifying how many margin points Apple is willing to give up. It does fit a pattern we've been tracking: this is our third Apple-memory story in as many days, following coverage of Apple's push for CXMT DRAM and its testing of CXMT parts for China iPhones, both of which read like second-source hedges against exactly this pricing dynamic.

The read-through for anyone else building consumer hardware in 2026 is uncomfortable. Memory pricing is now the swing variable in a premium device's cost stack, TrendForce sees that pressure persisting into 2027, and every OEM downstream is picking between margin and volume. Memory suppliers are the clearest beneficiaries; buyers with less brand pricing power than Apple are the ones with fewer options.