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FDD Analysis: Commerce Dept Effectively Suspended AI Chip Export-Control Enforcement for Over a Year, Allowing PLA Units to Acquire Nvidia Compute

nvidia china ai chips ai-geopolitics chip-exports

Summary

A June 2 Foundation for Defense of Democracies analysis documents that the US Commerce Department canceled enforcement of the AI Diffusion Rule in May 2025 and issued no meaningful replacement for over a year, leaving Chinese military-linked firms free to procure advanced Nvidia chips. Units of the PLA tied to nuclear weapons development and offensive cyberattacks reportedly gained computing access that would otherwise have been blocked. New enforcement guidance issued May 31, 2026 attempts to restore the regime, but the FDD analysis characterises the gap as a significant, self-inflicted vulnerability in the US export-control architecture.