SpaceX Prices Historic $75B IPO at $1.75 Trillion
Key insights
- Starlink generated $11.387B in 2025 revenue at a 63% EBITDA margin, with 10.3 million subscribers doubling year-over-year.
- The xAI segment posted a $6.355B operating loss in 2025 and consumed 76% of group capex in Q1 2026.
- SpaceX's $1.75 trillion IPO valuation prices shares at 94x 2025 revenue and 266x adjusted EBITDA.
Why this matters
The xAI segment's $12.7 billion in 2025 capex and 76% share of group Q1 2026 spending shows how fast capital is concentrating in AI infrastructure at the very top of the market. SpaceX's structure exposes a model where a profitable satellite connectivity business running at 63% EBITDA margins is being used as internal venture capital to fund frontier AI at a scale inaccessible to standalone startups or even most large tech companies. The $1.75 trillion valuation at 266x adjusted EBITDA signals that public market investors are now pricing speculative AI infrastructure bets alongside proven revenues, setting a new benchmark for how combined AI-plus-infrastructure companies will be valued.
Summary
SpaceX is pricing its IPO at $135 per share on June 11, 2026, targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation and roughly $75 billion in proceeds, which would make it the largest IPO in history.
The S-1 shows three segments: Starlink's $11.387B in 2025 revenue at a 63% EBITDA margin funds a loss-making xAI division that posted $6.355 billion in operating losses against $3.201B in revenue, and consumed 76% of group capex in Q1 2026.
Essentially: (SpaceX, xAI) Starlink profits are subsidizing an accelerating AI buildout.
- Group net loss reached $4.937B on $18.674B total 2025 revenue; cumulative losses stand at $41.3 billion.
- MSCI confirmed early index inclusion; the S&P 500 declined to fast-track it.
At 266x adjusted EBITDA, the $1.75 trillion valuation is pricing in Starship commercialization and orbital data centers materializing.
Potential risks and opportunities
Risks
- xAI's $6.355B operating loss and 76% capex share could widen further if Starlink subscriber growth stalls near the current 10.3 million base, straining group cash generation.
- At 266x adjusted EBITDA, any delay in Starship commercialization or orbital data center development could trigger sharp multiple compression, hitting institutional buyers who placed $10+ billion in orders at $135.
- S&P 500's refusal to fast-track inclusion limits passive index inflows to MSCI-driven demand alone, reducing the structural price support SpaceX was counting on post-listing.
Opportunities
- MSCI Global Standard Index early inclusion creates structural demand from passive funds globally, providing durable price support for early institutional entrants at the $135 IPO price.
- Starlink's 63% EBITDA margin and doubled subscriber base year-over-year positions it as a high-value spinoff or tracking-stock candidate once Starship commercialization is de-risked.
- The xAI acquisition at a $250 billion valuation sets a public-market pricing anchor for AI infrastructure assets, potentially unlocking premium exit multiples for other AI infrastructure companies approaching IPO.
What we don't know yet
- S&P 500 rationale for declining fast-track inclusion not disclosed; no timeline given for potential reconsideration after trading begins June 12.
- xAI path to profitability: the S-1 provides no guidance on when $6.355B in annual operating losses will narrow.
- Starship per-launch revenue model not disclosed; the S-1 gives no commercial pricing equivalent to Falcon 9's $67-97M per flight.
Originally reported by tradingkey.com
Read the original article →Original headline: SpaceX Sets IPO Price at $135 per Share, Raising $75 Billion at $1.75 Trillion Valuation — Largest IPO in History