Zhipu Surges 170% as MiniMax Slides 50% — Anthropic Export Ban Cements China AI Winner-Loser Pair Trade

Zhipu shares have surged 170% since late March in Hong Kong while MiniMax shares have fallen approximately 50%, cementing a long/short pair trade among China AI investors per Bloomberg. The divergence reflects Zhipu's pricing power — it raised prices on GLM models this year — while MiniMax cut its flagship M3 price by 50% shortly after launch; JPMorgan raised its Zhipu target to HK$1,400 from HK$950. The Anthropic Fable 5 and Mythos 5 export ban has accelerated the trade, with Zhipu framing its GLM-5.2 Max launch as a direct response to geopolitical restrictions on US AI access.