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Kalshi Launches First Prediction Markets for Phase 3 Drug Trial and FDA Approval Outcomes With AI Firm AppliedXL

Summary

Kalshi launched 13 biotech contracts on July 16 in partnership with AppliedXL, an AI-powered clinical-trial intelligence firm, letting users bet on Phase 3 outcomes and full FDA approval decisions from established biopharma. Named contracts include Gilead's cancer drug approval, AriBio's Alzheimer's trial hitting endpoints and Eli Lilly's retatrutide timing; ~$128K traded in the first hours. Kalshi excludes pediatric and recruiting trials and applies employment-verification insider-trading checks.

Shared on Bluesky by 1 AI expert

  • Karl Bode @karlbode.com amplified

    @maxkennerly.bsky.social

    Yet another Kalshi offering that serves no legitimate economic purpose. It's not possible to make a rational bet on this without material non-public information. It's a market solely for fraud by both regulators and corp…

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