wsj.com via Hacker News

Altman and Amodei Retreat From AI Jobs Wipeout Warnings

TL;DR

  • Sam Altman told CNBC the AI industry 'underestimated how much we're going to be able to keep people at the center of everything.'
  • An EY-Parthenon poll found CEOs expecting AI investments to cut headcount fell from roughly 46% in January 2025 to 20% by May 2026.
  • MIT economist David Autor said leaders 'may have realized it was simply bad business to say that your great new product will destroy the economy.'

A year ago the pitch from the top of the AI industry was that a large chunk of your job was about to vanish. This summer, according to reporting in the Wall Street Journal, the same founders are saying something markedly softer. Sam Altman told CNBC the industry had 'underestimated how much we're going to be able to keep people at the center of everything,' and elsewhere conceded the industry has been 'roughly right on technological predictions and pretty wrong on the social and economic implications.' Dario Amodei, who last May warned AI could erase half of all entry-level roles, has moved to a scenario in which even if 90 percent of jobs get automated, the remaining 10 percent of workers simply become vastly more productive. Jeff Bezos, asked on CNBC why people are afraid of AI taking their jobs, answered that they are afraid because 'all these smart people keep saying that.'

The survey data lines up with the change in tone. An EY-Parthenon poll cited in the reporting shows the share of CEOs expecting AI investments to cut headcount fell from around 46% in January 2025 to just 20% in May 2026. MIT economist David Autor offered two readings and it is worth sitting with both: either leaders have noticed the labor market is not imploding as fast as they claimed, or, as he put it, they 'may have realized it was simply bad business to say that your great new product will destroy the economy.'

The timing is what makes the pivot hard to take at face value. Fortune notes that OpenAI and Anthropic are heading toward IPOs at reported valuations of roughly $1 trillion and $380 billion, and public-market investors, regulators and enterprise procurement teams are all much happier buying augmentation than buying a machine that vaporizes payroll. A jobs-apocalypse founder is a compliance and PR liability in a way a productivity-multiplier founder is not.

The honest caveat is that the layoff numbers on the ground do not match the softer rhetoric. PYMNTS reports tech layoffs through May 2026 have passed 115,000, already approaching the 124,000 logged in all of 2025, with Meta, Amazon and Snap among those citing AI as a driver of cuts. What the reporting does not give you is a breakdown by role or seniority, so it is hard to tell whether entry-level white-collar hiring in particular is holding up or being quietly hollowed out under a friendlier headline.

For anyone planning a career, a hiring budget, or an AI vendor contract, the useful takeaway is not that the risk is gone but that founders have adjusted their story to fit their next fundraise. Take the softer forecasts as reported, not settled.

Shared on Bluesky by 2 AI experts

  • Karen Gregory @karengregory.bsky.social amplified

    @benzipperer.org

    maybe the massive job losses tech CEOs warned about weren't a prediction but a product pitch

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  • Matt Darling @besttrousers.bsky.social amplified

    @arindube.bsky.social

    The hype that wasn't ... How AI leaders are rapidly changing their tune. (from the WSJ) Link: www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-w...

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