Counterpoint: China 618 Phone Sales Fell 13%, Only Huawei Grew

The counterintuitive read of the numbers Reuters surfaced from Counterpoint Research is that China's 618 slump is not really a demand story. The month-long festival ran May 26 to June 21, and smartphone sales fell 13% year-over-year across the window. Honor dropped 33%, Xiaomi 24%, Apple 9%. Huawei was the only major brand to grow, up 19%, at 21% share of the festival.

What ties those numbers together is a supply-side pass-through. Counterpoint senior analyst Ivan Lam said several models, both new and older, were priced higher than comparable devices a year ago, and that discounts were less aggressive this year in both depth and breadth. The reason Counterpoint offered, and that EconoTimes echoed in its writeup, is that AI infrastructure buildouts have pulled memory component pricing higher, and OEMs no longer had the margin room to cut the sticker as hard as 618 shoppers expect.

If that read holds up, it is one of the first mainstream consumer data points showing memory tightness bleeding through to end devices rather than staying upstream in servers and hyperscaler capex lines. Anyone modelling AI infrastructure spend as a clean transfer from cloud buyers to memory suppliers now has to price in a second-order effect: OEMs in commoditised end markets absorb some of the increase and lose volume when they try to pass the rest through.

The honest caveat is that this is a single research firm reading a single promotional window, and 618 depth is famously distorted by inventory-clearing tactics and channel mix. The reporting does not break out sales by price band, does not separate Huawei's share gain from any pull-forward effect, and does not say whether the same memory pass-through is showing up in other geographies. Take the specifics as reported, not settled.

The direction is the part worth watching. If memory tightness runs into the second half, the beneficiaries are players with pricing power or a captive base, Huawei domestically and the memory vendors themselves. The exposed side is every mid-range OEM whose plan relied on aggressive festival discounts to move volume.