TrendForce: DRAM Prices to Jump 63% Again in Q2
Key insights
- TrendForce forecasts DRAM contract prices rising 58 to 63% in Q2 2026, following a near-doubling in Q1.
- Memory chipmakers hit $97 billion in Q1 2026 revenue, an 81% year-on-year surge tied to AI server demand.
- SK Hynix signals the shortage could last through 2030; Micron expects meaningful new supply not before 2027.
Why this matters
A 58 to 63% DRAM price increase in Q2 compounding on a 98% Q1 jump means AI training and inference hardware costs are rising faster than most infrastructure budgets anticipated. The allocation hierarchy, with hyperscalers first and everyone else last, gives large cloud providers a structural cost advantage over smaller AI teams that cannot negotiate bulk supply contracts. With Micron and SK Hynix both placing supply relief in the 2027 to 2028 window at the earliest, any roadmap or funding model that assumes DRAM normalization in 2026 is almost certainly mispriced.
Summary
DRAM contract prices jumped up to 98% in Q1 2026, and TrendForce forecasts another 58 to 63% increase this quarter. Manufacturers are prioritizing high-capacity RDIMMs for AI servers, squeezing out PC and smartphone vendors. Hyperscale buyers absorb price hikes to secure allocations, pushing double-digit percentage increases onto European laptop and desktop buyers.
Essentially: (SK Hynix, Micron) the shortage is structural, not a cycle that self-corrects on a quarterly schedule.
- Memory chipmakers saw industry revenue spike 81% to $97 billion in Q1 2026.
- SK Hynix Chairman Chey Tae-won aims to double wafer output gradually over the next five years.
- Micron expects meaningful new capacity in 2027-2028; SK Hynix signals shortages could persist through 2030.
With no supply relief before 2027 at the earliest, DRAM cost escalation is a multi-year variable for any team buying or renting AI compute.
Potential risks and opportunities
Risks
- PC OEMs face margin compression through at least Q3 2026 as DRAM costs rise another 58 to 63% with limited room to pass increases to price-sensitive consumers already seeing double-digit price rises in Europe.
- AI infrastructure startups without hyperscale negotiating leverage could see DRAM line items become a runway constraint before Micron's 2027 to 2028 capacity expansion arrives.
- European enterprise IT buyers face compounding double-digit laptop and desktop price increases through 2026, likely delaying hardware refresh cycles and slowing AI PC adoption.
Opportunities
- Hyperscale cloud providers that already secured DRAM allocations gain pricing leverage over enterprise customers renting AI compute at elevated rates throughout 2026.
- Memory-efficient inference optimization vendors benefit as rising DRAM costs push AI teams toward lower-memory model architectures and serving frameworks.
- SK Hynix and Micron shareholders captured an 81% revenue surge in Q1 2026 with further upside likely if the 58 to 63% Q2 price increase materializes as TrendForce forecasts.
What we don't know yet
- Whether the 58 to 63% Q2 forecast covers conventional DRAM specifically or includes HBM and other AI memory products, which would significantly change the downstream impact on non-AI buyers.
- Whether major hyperscale buyers hold multi-year fixed-price DRAM contracts that insulate them from the TrendForce spot price projections cited in the article.
- SK Hynix Chairman Chey Tae-won's five-year wafer doubling plan has no node-level capacity numbers or annual production milestones disclosed publicly.
Originally reported by theregister.com
Read the original article →Original headline: DRAM Prices Expected to Rise Another 58–63% in Q2 2026 After Near-Doubling in Q1 — AI Memory Shortage Drives $97B Industry Revenue Surge, Relief Not Expected Until 2027–2028