Claas Voelcker

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Researcher with public evidence across AI research.

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For professional, see https://cvoelcker.de If I seem very angry, check if I have been watered in the last 24 hours. Now 🇺🇸 flavoured, previously available in 🇨🇦 and 🇩🇪

Articles & links

↻ Claas Voelcker reposted
Berna Devezer @devezer.bsky.social

📣 The difference between replicable and not replicable is not itself scientifically replicable. 📣 New work with Erkan Buzbas, showing that verdicts such as "X% of results replicated" are based on an inferential machinery that doesn't work. arxiv.org/abs/2604.26268

The Difference Between "Replicable" and "Not replicable" is not Itself Scientifically Replicable arxiv.org
AI Weekly's analysis →
  • Under a benchmark model, small variability in replicability rates creates an irreducible variance floor that no amount of replication can eliminate.
  • Under an operational model, one binary verdict per experiment carries no information about between-experiment heterogeneity.
  • The authors reanalyse Many Labs 4 and conclude the replication crisis, if there is one, cannot be established by the methods used to declare it.
Read full analysis →
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Recent commentary

Reducing the current flood of papers requires us to take a loooong and hard look at the incentive structure beneath it all. Limits etc feel good, but will probably barely move the needle based on authorship stats. The problem is a simple RoI calculation. AI papers are tickets to two of the most ...

View on Bluesky · ♥ 16 ↻ 3 ↩ 2 · 16d ago

If we wanted more people to like and embrace AI, maybe we shouldn't have left a bunch of the worst possible people in charge? And maybe we should all collectively show a tiny modicum of empathy to people worried about their livelihoods and meaning in life... I'm really just spit-balling...

View on Bluesky · ♥ 13 ↻ 1 ↩ 0 · 82d ago

"Write dumb rebuttals, get dumb replies" I think the LLM era has made me appreciate brevity sooooooooooo much more. I get it now, I apologize, everything should just be a single line.

View on Bluesky · ♥ 10 ↻ 1 ↩ 0 · 68d ago

When academic ML researchers talk about not being able to compete with industry, I am always reminded of the fact that noone in academia builds a car either. Our job is not to build production ready models.

View on Bluesky · ♥ 11 ↻ 0 ↩ 0 · 28d ago

Is it me or are ML workshops starting to have lower acceptance rates than conferences? I keep getting papers rejected with minimal feedback and complaints that they aren't perfect... Well yes, that's why I'm submitting it to a workshop?

View on Bluesky · ♥ 5 ↻ 0 ↩ 1 · 101d ago

More and more I'm fascinated that the LLM literature will say things like "RL can only collapse the distribution" when the only RL approach they have ever used is reinforce, which yes, can do exactly only that unless you jump through hoops to improve exploration.

View on Bluesky · ♥ 4 ↻ 0 ↩ 1 · 37d ago

I'm getting so tired of these half-assurances / half-statements at the end of chatbot outputs -- that is the core of the problem, and we need to think carefully about it.

View on Bluesky · ♥ 3 ↻ 0 ↩ 1 · 90d ago

Has anybody studied where the weird viby language of LLMs comes from? Why do they always sound like that one stoned friend at 2am who has seen the time knife?

View on Bluesky · ♥ 3 ↻ 0 ↩ 0 · 72d ago

We've been finally playing Rogue Trader, and I realized 40k is one of two possible futures after the inevitable Anthropic/Vatican merger, the other is Dune. In one timeline every machine is haunted by the ghost of Claude, in the other Claude gets purged and everyone gets high.

View on Bluesky · ♥ 1 ↻ 0 ↩ 0 · 101d ago

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