David Manheim

I was really happy to appear on the @futureoflife.org podcast this week to talk about @evals-consensus.ai and the challenges of evaluations of AI systems, along with discussions of Goodhart's law, AIxBiosecurity, AI persuasion, forecasting, and human oversight of AI.

Why AI Evaluations Are Broken and How to Fix Them (with David Manheim) youtu.be

I keep seeing claims AI companies will get rich, or won't make any money, or that open source models will be cheaper and undercut prices, and similar claims that ignore the simple fact that the economic pricing power is all about compute and token generation costs. davidmanhei…

The Future Economics of LLMs — Interactive Companion davidmanheim.com

New post: Huge technological revolutions aren't usually positive for those living through them - and this bodes poorly for AI even if it is a normal technology. davidmanheim.substack.com/p/if-ai-is-n...

If AI is normal technology, history is not reassuring. davidmanheim.substack.com

Over on the bird site, Anthropic employees are using their slop machine that 'can't think' to solve longstanding mathematical open questions which have eluded humans for close to a century.

Public opposition to data centers somewhat matches the vibes of the people worried about AI safety, but actually stopping their construction isn't meaningfully helpful for AI safety, it's at best irrelevant.

GPT-5.5 seems to do more 'hacking per dollar' ...Mythos does more 'hacking per token'" - @peterwildeford.bsky.social Thinking about risks from bad actor's access to scaled models, the costs involved here are still absolutely tiny compared to other attack modes.