Who's Who of AI

Aki Vehtari

278 trust researcher @avehtari.bsky.social · 6,493 followers
AI research
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Researcher with public evidence across AI research.

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22d ago
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Academy Professor in computational Bayesian modeling at Aalto University, Finland. Bayesian Data Analysis 3rd ed, Regression and Other Stories, and Active Statistics co-author. #mcmc_stan and #arviz developer. Web page https://users.aalto.fi/~ave/
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Articles & links

New paper "To select or not to select: predictively consistent priors instead of model selection" with Anna Elisabeth Riha, Leevi Lindgren, @davidkohns.bsky.social, @paulbuerkner.com arxiv.org/abs/2606.22850 Model selection is not a substitute for building good models in the f…

To select or not to select: predictively consistent priors instead of model selection arxiv.org
AI Weekly's analysis →
  • The paper claims flexible models with predictively consistent priors typically match or outperform selected simpler models in out-of-sample predictive performance.
  • When model selection does help, the authors argue it signals problematic prior specifications rather than a genuine modeling advantage.
  • The framework is tested across linear and logistic regression, variable selection, and nonlinear modeling, in a 34 page paper with 36 supplementary pages.
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View on Bluesky · ♥ 101 ↻ 30 ↩ 1 · 2 from the directory shared this · 79d ago

Revised version of "Bridge sampling diagnostics" with Giorgio Micaletto arxiv.org/abs/2508.14487 - extended experiments with reference values - better diagnostic for estimate reliability - new hybrid score-matching proposal significantly improving the stability of the estimato…

Bridge Sampling Diagnostics arxiv.org
View on Bluesky · ♥ 6 ↻ 1 ↩ 1 · 22d ago
↻ Aki Vehtari reposted
@statco-bot.bsky.social

Trevor Campbell, Jonathan H. Huggins, Kyurae Kim, Charles C. Margossian: Large-scale empirical tuning and comparison of default optimizers for variational inference https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.07841 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2606.07841 https://arxiv.org/html/2606.07841

arxiv.org View on Bluesky →

Some of the case studies are close to corresponding book chapters or have even more description, so check few more online. You can also read the arXiv version arxiv.org/abs/2011.01808 as a preview

Bayesian Workflow arxiv.org
View on Bluesky · ♥ 2 ↻ 1 ↩ 0 · 93d ago
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