Four days after Washington cut foreign access to Anthropic's top models, the fallout is clear — and it's flowing to everyone but Anthropic. Cohere says it's drowning in government inbounds, DeepSeek just closed a record $7.4B round, and China's labs are slashing token prices up to 99%. The export control meant to protect America's AI lead is fast-tracking the alternatives. Also this week: 144 poisoned npm packages turn the AI supply chain into an open credential heist.

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Quick Hits

The Lab Gladiator Era

DeepSeek's Quiet Takeover

  • The US ban is a gift to Chinese open source — Zai jumped 30% — With Anthropic's models pulled for foreign nationals, buyers are routing to open weights. Fortune reports Zai shares jumped 30%, and DeepSeek runs roughly 14× cheaper than Fable 5. The control aimed at China is steering demand straight to it. [Fortune]
  • DeepSeek closes a record $7.4B round at a ~$50B+ valuation — DeepSeek sealed its first external raise — about 50B yuan from Tencent, CATL, NetEase and JD — a six-fold valuation jump since April. The unusual structure hands a state-backed fund the only voting rights, with founder Liang Wenfeng putting in 20B yuan himself. [The Information]
  • Five Chinese labs cut token prices up to 99% in a deepening price war — ByteDance, Tencent, MiniMax, Xiaomi and Alibaba all slashed prices this week, with Xiaomi's MiMo V2.5 down 99% and the rest cutting in response. A price floor like that makes switching away from US models even easier. [SCMP]

AI Supply Chain Under Siege

America's AI Moat Became China's On-Ramp

The export order was supposed to deny adversaries America's best AI. Four days in, it's doing the opposite — handing rivals the one thing money can't buy: a reason to switch.

Start with the sales pitches. Cohere's chief AI officer says inbounds are pouring in from governments "outside the US and China" who suddenly need models that can't be revoked by a letter from Commerce; Mistral is loudly branding itself as AI that "exists outside state control." Neither had to write a word of new marketing. Washington wrote it for them.

Then the capital. DeepSeek closed a $7.4B round at a roughly $50B+ valuation — a six-fold jump since April — while Zai shares popped 30% on the news that buyers are routing to Chinese open weights running ~14× cheaper than Fable 5. Five Chinese labs cut prices up to 99% the same week. The diversification the controls were meant to prevent now has a balance sheet.

Even Washington's allies are scrambling: at the G7 in Évian, Commerce floated a "trusted partners" carve-out so friendly nations could claw back access. A moat only works if it keeps people out. This one is teaching everyone to build their own boat.

Key Takeaways

  • Export controls converted Anthropic's capability lead into a liability. Rivals' best pitch is now "we can't be switched off by Washington" — and Cohere and Mistral are running it hard.
  • The ban is demand-gen for Chinese open source. DeepSeek's $7.4B raise, Zai's 30% pop, and tokens up to 99% cheaper are the exact diversification the controls were meant to stop.
  • Anthropic's split screen — blocked abroad, #1 in US enterprise spend — is the real lesson: in a fragmenting market, jurisdiction is now a product feature.
  • The AI supply chain is the soft target. 144 Mastra packages and 15 JetBrains plugins were weaponized in days to harvest AI and developer credentials. Pin versions, rotate keys, audit plugins.

Worth Reading

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This week's poll

Cutting off foreign access to America's best AI models — protection, or own goal?

Last week, 93 of you voted:

What should investors discount most after the Claude shutdown?

  • Model capability that cannot be broadly deployed73%
  • US export-control or national-security risk13%
  • Consumer-protection probes into engagement and safety6%
  • LLM fragility versus alternative AGI architectures8%

See full results →

— Alexis