Who's Who of AI

Matthew Salganik

154 trust researcher @msalganik.bsky.social · 3,087 followers
AI research
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Researcher with public evidence across AI research.

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past 30d
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past 30d
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7d ago
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Professor of Sociology, Princeton, www.princeton.edu/~mjs3 Author of Bit by Bit: Social Research in the Digital Age, bitbybitbook.com
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Articles & links

Happy to share a new working paper: "Machine Learning Models Trained on a Longitudinal Survey Dataset Poorly Predict Hundreds of Life Outcomes" arxiv.org/abs/2610.17115 You can hear Emily Cantrell present it Thursday Oct 15 at Oxford: metrics-and-models.github.io (online parti…

Machine Learning Models Trained on a Longitudinal Survey Dataset Poorly Predict Hundreds of Life Outcomes arxiv.org
AI Weekly's analysis →
  • Across 484 life outcomes drawn from the Future of Families and Child Wellbeing Study, the median cross-validated R² was 0.03.
  • The best-predicted outcomes topped out at R²CV of 0.63 for caregiver marital status and 0.62 for youth height in centimeters.
  • The authors trained up to 15,160 models per outcome and still found complex procedures showed little skill over a simple baseline.
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View on Bluesky · ♥ 74 ↻ 30 ↩ 0 · 2 from the directory shared this · 7d ago

School of Social Science at the Institute for Advanced Study call for applications for residential fellows in 2027-28. Annual theme will be: Understanding AI. Applications due Oct 15. www.ias.edu/sites/defaul...

ias.edu
View on Bluesky · ♥ 3 ↻ 1 ↩ 0 · 2 from the directory shared this · 77d ago
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