S&P 500 Denies SpaceX Fast Entry, Blocking OpenAI and Anthropic Too

Index inclusion in the S&P 500 triggers something mechanical: trillions of dollars in passive funds are required to buy whatever stock enters, regardless of price. That guaranteed demand was what made the push for fast-track entry so commercially significant for SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic as they prepared for their public listings.

Ars Technica reports that S&P Dow Jones Indices announced, after a public consultation that ran from April 30 through May 28, that it would not waive any of the three contested entry requirements: a 12-month seasoning period after listing, four consecutive quarters of positive GAAP earnings, and a minimum 10% public float. The decision applies to all new listings, regardless of market capitalization.

The ruling lands hardest on the year's three most anticipated IPOs. SpaceX, which began trading on Nasdaq on June 12 at an expected valuation of $1.75 to $2 trillion, reported a $4.94 billion net loss in 2025 on $18.67 billion in revenue, making it ineligible for S&P 500 inclusion until at least mid-2027 under the profitability requirement alone. OpenAI, which filed a confidential S-1 targeting a Q4 2026 listing, and Anthropic, aiming for an October 2026 IPO, face the same barrier. Neither is currently profitable. Bloomberg Intelligence estimated that fast inclusion would have generated about $14 billion in passive demand for SpaceX, more than $8 billion for OpenAI, and about $4.6 billion for Anthropic, a collective roughly $27 billion in forced buying the three companies will now forgo, at least for now.

Nasdaq recently revised its eligibility framework to allow new listings into the Nasdaq-100 after just 15 trading days, and FTSE Russell shortened its window to as few as 5 trading days, moves widely seen as attempts to capture the 2026 mega-IPO wave. S&P held firm on requirements designed to protect passive investors from being obligated to absorb shares in loss-making companies at elevated valuations.

What the reporting does not resolve is whether SpaceX, OpenAI, or Anthropic will actually reach four consecutive profitable quarters before mid-2027, given the losses involved. If they do eventually qualify, the tens of billions in passive buying would still arrive, just later and potentially at different prices. Whether that delay ultimately rewards or disappoints long-term index investors is the question S&P's decision leaves open.