Aaron Roth

Why they matter

Researcher with public evidence across AI research, Responsible AI.

AI signals
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past 30d
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distinct domains
Discussions
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past 30d
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13d ago
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Professor at Penn, Amazon Scholar at AWS. Interested in machine learning, uncertainty quantification, game theory, privacy, fairness, and most of the intersections therein

Articles & links

Modern LLMs are incredibly good compression algorithms, which can shed light on why autonomous data science agents don't overfit as much as you might think. arxiv.org/abs/2606.11045

What Fits (Into Few Tokens) Doesn't Overfit: Compression and Generalization in ML Research Agents arxiv.org
AI Weekly's analysis →
  • ML strategies that generalize well can be described in very few tokens, Bertran, Roth, and Wu argue.
  • A reproducer agent given only a brief prompt successfully replicated high-performance models found by a full exploration agent.
  • The framework was tested across 8 datasets covering tabular, vision, language, diffusion, and reward modeling tasks.
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View on Bluesky · ♥ 23 ↻ 5 ↩ 1 · 2 from the directory shared this · 110d ago

A world without open problems Here are some that fell today: K-server: arxiv.org/abs/2609.15979 Matroid Secretary: arxiv.org/abs/2609.145... Matrix Spencer: arxiv.org/abs/2609.15025 (Well Matrix Spencer was maybe also a few weeks ago, but who's counting? arxiv.org/abs/2608.288…

The $k$-server conjecture is true arxiv.org
AI Weekly's analysis →
  • A new preprint claims a proof that the work function algorithm achieves competitive ratio k on every metric space, matching the known lower bound.
  • The conjecture was introduced by Manasse, McGeoch and Sleator in 1988; the paper calls it the 'holy grail' of competitive analysis.
  • The prior best general bound for the work function algorithm was 2k-1, due to Koutsoupias and Papadimitriou.
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View on Bluesky · ♥ 31 ↻ 6 ↩ 3 · 2 from the directory shared this · 13d ago

A world without open problems Here are some that fell today: K-server: arxiv.org/abs/2609.15979 Matroid Secretary: arxiv.org/abs/2609.145... Matrix Spencer: arxiv.org/abs/2609.15025 (Well Matrix Spencer was maybe also a few weeks ago, but who's counting? arxiv.org/abs/2608.288…

The Matroid Secretary Conjecture is True arxiv.org
AI Weekly's analysis →
  • Sahil Singla has posted an arXiv preprint titled 'The Matroid Secretary Conjecture is True,' claiming a full resolution.
  • The algorithm is stated to accept each element of the offline optimum with probability at least 1/4.
  • It requires only the element count in advance and independence-oracle access to arrived elements, not the matroid itself.
Read full analysis →
View on Bluesky · ♥ 31 ↻ 6 ↩ 3 · 2 from the directory shared this · 13d ago

A world without open problems Here are some that fell today: K-server: arxiv.org/abs/2609.15979 Matroid Secretary: arxiv.org/abs/2609.145... Matrix Spencer: arxiv.org/abs/2609.15025 (Well Matrix Spencer was maybe also a few weeks ago, but who's counting? arxiv.org/abs/2608.288…

Matrix Spencer: Eight Standard Deviations Suffice and an Almost-Linear Time Algorithm for Dense Input arxiv.org
AI Weekly's analysis →
  • Zhao Song and Lichen Zhang prove the Matrix Spencer conjecture, showing a signing of spectral discrepancy below 8√n always exists.
  • Their randomized algorithm finds a signing below 12√n using n^{3+o(1)} polylog(1/p) arithmetic operations, matching the size of the dense input up to subpolynomial factors.
  • Previously the conjecture held only under rank, block-diagonal, or Frobenius-norm restrictions; plain random signs delivered only O(√(n log n)).
Read full analysis →
View on Bluesky · ♥ 31 ↻ 6 ↩ 3 · 2 from the directory shared this · 13d ago

We call this condition "coalitional alignment" -- it is very similar to the market alignment condition that drives our earlier work: arxiv.org/abs/2509.15090 It is a substantially weaker condition than individual alignment (That the reviewer agents have your utility exactly)

Emergent Alignment via Competition arxiv.org
View on Bluesky · ♥ 1 ↻ 0 ↩ 1 · 13d ago

Recent commentary

People used to be able to impress and intimidate reviewers with complicated proofs. This will change. In the age of AI inscrutable proofs are cheap. It is understandable proofs that are valuable. Opaque complexity is now it is a sign of laziness or lack of insight.

View on Bluesky · ♥ 60 ↻ 7 ↩ 1 · 52d ago

AI tools are very useful for mathematical research. But at present, producing good work requires a labor intensive step that I have been calling "deslopping" - making the thing readable. Please do not skip this step; even if the theorem is great an unreadable paper is worthless.

View on Bluesky · ♥ 27 ↻ 3 ↩ 4 · 4d ago

I sometimes see people trying to use complexity theory to argue that building "true" AI is impossible. I find this unreasonably annoying. It requires ignoring what is in front of your face and it ignores that worst-case complexity has been an awful guide in machine learning.

View on Bluesky · ♥ 21 ↻ 0 ↩ 1 · 14d ago

AI is getting good at math. What are our jobs as researchers now that we have proof machines? The raw proofs that come from LLMs are difficult to understand, even if correct. So its now easy to quickly write many badly written papers that nevertheless contain correct proofs of interesting theorems.

View on Bluesky · ♥ 7 ↻ 2 ↩ 1 · 89d ago

Right now we have "problem overhang" - lots of problems we as a community are interested in because smart and charismatic people thought about them and convinced us that these problems are important. So we are happy/interested to see them solved by AI.

View on Bluesky · ♥ 9 ↻ 0 ↩ 1 · 58d ago

An annoying part of the twitter/bluesky discussion of whether LLMs are "only" "next token predictor"/stochastic parrots is that "next token predictor" is contentless - all mappings from inputs to output strings can be factored into a sequence of "next token" distributions.

View on Bluesky · ♥ 6 ↻ 0 ↩ 1 · 3d ago

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