Epoch AI

This week’s Gradient Update was written by Jean-Stanislas Denain, Joe Kwon, and Anson Ho. All Gradient Updates are informal, opinionated analyses that represent the views of individual authors, not Epoch AI as a whole. Read the full essay here: epochai.substack.com/p/toward-an...

Toward an O*NET for AI R&D epochai.substack.com

These are the highest scores among models we have run on the recently-released v2 dataset, though our runs of GPT Pro models are on-going. Find all scores on our website. epoch.ai/frontiermat...

FrontierMath: LLM Benchmark for Advanced AI Math Reasoning epoch.ai

This week’s Gradient Update was written by Phil Trammell and Anson Ho. All Gradient Updates are informal, opinionated analyses that represent the views of individual authors, not Epoch AI as a whole. Read the full essay here: epochai.substack.com/p/controlli...

Controlling the capital after AGI epochai.substack.com

AI infrastructure is now the leading driver of growth in private investment in the US. Full Data Insight: epoch.ai/data-insigh...

Data center buildout share of US GDP is still relatively small (but rapidly growing) epoch.ai

epoch.ai/gradient-up...

epoch.ai

Claude Fable 5 scores very well on FrontierMath: Tiers 1–4 (v2), reaching 87% on Tiers 1–3 and 88% on Tier 4. This continues a streak of Anthropic models improving rapidly at math.

The end of the self-funded AI buildout? Hyperscaler cash capex is growing much faster than cash inflows. On current trends, they will be unable to fully fund the AI infrastructure buildout with cash from operations by the end of this year.

The AI boom has doubled computing infrastructure's share of US GDP. Investment in AI-related data center construction, compute hardware, and networking equipment accounted for ~0.8% of US GDP in Q1 2026, driving computing infrastructure as a whole to ~1.5% of GDP.

How should we think through various proposals for sharing the gains of AGI? According to Phil Trammell and Anson Ho, the leading proposals for universal redistribution after AGI differ along a primary axis: how much direct control over capital they propose giving citizens. 🧵

Claude Fable 5 achieves a new high score of 161 on the Epoch Capabilities Index! This beats out GPT-5.5 Pro by 1 point, and is the first time Anthropic has taken the lead on the ECI in over a year.

The record for computing capacity in a single data center has doubled every 7 months. Colossus 1, Anthropic-Amazon New Carlisle, and Meta Prometheus have each claimed the top spot in turn.

FrontierMath: Tiers 1–4 (v2) is live. We concluded an audit that addressed errors in 42% of problems. Rankings are similar but scores are higher across the board. The current leaders are GPT-5.5 (xhigh) with 85% on Tiers 1–3 and Google’s AI co-mathematician with 76% on Tier 4.

AI companies say their models are getting better at finding software vulnerabilities. Is that bearing out in public data? Introducing our Cyber Vulnerabilities explorer, which visualizes Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures (CVE) reported to the CVE Program since 2022.

How close is AI to automating AI R&D? Right now, the tools economists use to track automation are too blunt to say. In this week's newsletter, Jean-Stanislas Denain, Joe Kwon, and Anson Ho propose a sharper tool: a thorough taxonomy of 60+ tasks involved in frontier AI research. 🧵

We've added narrations to our long-form content on the Epoch AI website, including reports, Gradient Updates, and topic overviews. Look for the play button.