Who's Who of AI

Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛

283 trust @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 17,952 followers
AI business
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Directory member with public evidence across AI business.

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Anthropologist - Bayesian modeling - science reform - cat and cooking content too - Director @ MPI for evolutionary anthropology https://www.eva.mpg.de/ecology/staff/richard-mcelreath/
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↻ Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ reposted
Aki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social

New paper "To select or not to select: predictively consistent priors instead of model selection" with Anna Elisabeth Riha, Leevi Lindgren, @davidkohns.bsky.social, @paulbuerkner.com arxiv.org/abs/2606.22850 Model selection is not a substitute for building good models in the f…

To select or not to select: predictively consistent priors instead of model selection arxiv.org
AI Weekly's analysis →
  • The paper claims flexible models with predictively consistent priors typically match or outperform selected simpler models in out-of-sample predictive performance.
  • When model selection does help, the authors argue it signals problematic prior specifications rather than a genuine modeling advantage.
  • The framework is tested across linear and logistic regression, variable selection, and nonlinear modeling, in a 34 page paper with 36 supplementary pages.
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Recent commentary

I do wonder what David Hilbert would think about all this. He was accused of trying to automate mathematics, in the 1920s! The "Hilbert program" failed in an exact sense, because Gödel, but it succeeded by making formal proof systems like Lean possible. And Lean makes the AI-sausage-machine work.

View on Bluesky · ♥ 74 ↻ 9 ↩ 3 · 18d ago

I spontaneously wrote the sentence "The history of causal inference mirrors the history of the laser" so now I am reading the history of lasers. Just to make sure I haven't hallucinated anything

View on Bluesky · ♥ 32 ↻ 0 ↩ 9 · 72d ago
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