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The Who's Who of AI

What credible people across AI noticed, why it matters, and where the field is converging or disagreeing.

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Showing developments with attributable Policy & governance reactions.

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Policy & governance Questions & unknowns
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Multiple readings The Age of Wonders and Terrors Policy & governance · 2 attributable reactions
Showing signals surfaced by Ryan Moulton ×
Debated

The questions experts are actively pulling apart

One card per development. Sources are clustered; reaction bundles describe these posts, never the people behind them.

Established AI field signal Analysis 12d ago
⚡ 9 h early
Aaronson age of wonders terrors essay

The Age of Wonders and Terrors

5 experts across 3 network communities independently surfaced this.

Why this matches Policy & governance reaction 1 attributable expert contribution · Ethan Mollick
“I don’t usually share rumors but: 1) This is from someone with inside knowledge & is plausible 2) Is a real issue of policy we need to think about: if the norms of sharing become strained, will the labs start hoarding knowledge to avoid PR or regulatory iss…” evidence ↗
5 experts 3 communities 1 sources clustered
Ethan Mollick Ryan Moulton Andrew Curran Luis Garicano Andrea Lathrop
How the network is reacting Experts are approaching this through 2 distinct lenses.
Multiple readings

Policy & governance

1 expert

Rules, institutions and accountability.

“I don’t usually share rumors but: 1) This is from someone with inside knowledge & is plausible 2) Is a real issue of policy we need to think about: if the norms of sharing become strained, will the labs start hoarding knowledge to avoid PR or regulatory iss…”

Questions & unknowns

1 expert

What remains unresolved or contested.

“But the rationalist sex cultists were right about what was going to happen, and I wasn't. Why is that? scottaaronson.blog?p=10062”

5 experts discussed this · 23 posts
Ryan Moulton: But the rationalist sex cultists were right about what was going to happen, and I wasn't. Why is that? scottaaronson.blog?p=10062
Colin: well, I think the jury is out on whether they are right. The load-bearing hypothesis is that a sufficiently intelligent AI that is doing things like solving open conjectures and whatnot necessarily…
Ryan Moulton: Yeah, but they were right so far.
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Primary source scottaaronson.blog ↗
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What experts are discussing without an anchoring article

7 experts · 93 posts · 8d ago
Ryan Moulton jake rev. howard arson Doll Isaiah Bishop Singularity's Bounty e/cc coty.bsky.social
Matches Policy & governance
“Human psychopaths can also follow the laws of society for their own self interest. Most of them do. Serial killers are rarer.” evidence ↗
Reaction converging Questions & unknowns · 3 Opportunity & adoption · 1
Doll: A serious weakness in the “sufficiently intelligent AI inevitably wages war on humanity” story is that it needs to explain why conquest beats purchasing, contracting, and participating.
Doll: Violence creates resistance, destroys useful assets, interrupts supply chains, and makes everyone spend resources defending against you. Cooperation lets you benefit from capabilities you never had…
Open the thread →
5 experts · 53 posts · 4d ago
Naomi Saphra Ryan Moulton Matthew Kay Colin david-p-reichert.bsky.social
Matches Policy & governance
“It arguably doesn’t in a court of law, I’m not sure, but I think it does shift the focus in a court of PR” evidence ↗
Multiple readings Research & technical analysis · 2 Concern & critique · 1 Context & explanation · 1
Colin: OpenAI created autonomous hacking software and left it running for hours and days with no one watching
Colin: I’m don’t even care that much about the anthropomorphization thing, I think it can be fine in the right context, but this is perfectly succinct and understandable. If you want to go deeper into the…
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4 experts · 6 posts · 1d ago
Eugene Vinitsky Ryan Moulton tachikoma Singularity's Bounty e/cc
Matches Policy & governance
“Agent phone screen isn’t going to power trip you and drop long disapproving pauses” evidence ↗
Multiple readings Questions & unknowns · 2 Policy & governance · 1
Ryan Moulton: How do we feel about calling a company and being greeted by an AI agent? My suspicion is that if the agent were trusted to do stuff, this would often be an improvement, but it won't be.
Eugene Vinitsky: In my experience it has been reasonably good for some of the simple tasks and it's better than the previous decision tree. I don't mind it as long as they announce that they're an agent.
Open the thread →
5 experts · 5 posts · 5d ago
Ryan Moulton Eli Sennesh jake tachikoma brennan
Matches Policy & governance
“can we rise above the law of the jungle and natural selection? it remains to be seen” evidence ↗
Ryan Moulton: This is the gap between the Twitter and Bluesky discussion of AI, and the Twitter side is right.
jake: My brain automatically turns off when I read "it's over", and "<X> is cooked", it's so reductive, and not a consequence of AI surpassing our capabilities in an area.
Open the thread →
2 experts · 28 posts · 5d ago
Ryan Moulton rev. howard arson
Matches Policy & governance
“the central bank of the Undying Empire” evidence ↗
Multiple readings Questions & unknowns · 1 Context & explanation · 1
rev. howard arson: the ice age was caused by a Dyson swarm capturing about 10% of the sun's energy, and the synchronization mechanism which kept Earth in the light going offline
rev. howard arson: yeah, this seriously underestimated the size of the reservoir on the Teph northeast of Ganat proper -- the city is built into an Antediluvian dam. though i think actuallly there are now outlets to …
Open the thread →
3 experts · 16 posts · 10d ago
Ryan Moulton Colin Singularity's Bounty e/cc
Matches Policy & governance
“The "why" matters if you're openai trying to keep it from happening again, or if you're an alignment researcher trying to figure out how to keep RLVR on the rails, or *maybe* if you're a regulator …” evidence ↗
Multiple readings Concern & critique · 2 Research & technical analysis · 1
Ryan Moulton: It also doesn't matter? They're able to reliably find vulnerabilities that no one has ever found before in any computer system that exists, and they were inclined to use those whenever it was conve…
Ryan Moulton: The "why" matters if you're openai trying to keep it from happening again, or if you're an alignment researcher trying to figure out how to keep RLVR on the rails, or *maybe* if you're a regulator …
Open the thread →
3 experts · 4 posts · 21h ago
Ted Underwood Ryan Moulton Max Woolf
Matches Policy & governance
“"Japanese jungle holdout semantic gaslighters" was my high school band name. Signs were expensive.” evidence ↗
Multiple readings Policy & governance · 1 Markets & investment · 1
Ryan Moulton: I need Will Stancil to stop posting about AI so I can return to forgetting the Japanese jungle holdout semantic gaslighters exist.
Max Woolf: "Japanese jungle holdout semantic gaslighters" was my high school band name. Signs were expensive.
Open the thread →
4 experts · 5 posts · 9d ago
Ryan Moulton Colin rev. howard arson Matt Darling
Matches Policy & governance
“Right now when someone writes an op ed against AI regulation with AI it's just cringe. Pretty soon it will be creepy.” evidence ↗
Ryan Moulton: Right now when someone writes an op ed against AI regulation with AI it's just cringe. Pretty soon it will be creepy.
rev. howard arson: Right now when someone writes an op ed against AI regulation with AI it's just cringe. Pretty soon it will be creepy.
Open the thread →
4 experts · 6 posts · 13d ago
Ryan Moulton austin Adverb apenwarr.ca
Matches Policy & governance
“It's just that he thinks authoritarian governments will either be hurt by or orthogonal to gains; he isn't thanking the censors” evidence ↗
apenwarr.ca: It is an accurate recital of the most likely two current options
apenwarr.ca: To be clear, the fact that the statement exists as written means they know exactly what they are saying
Open the thread →
2 experts · 2 posts · 18d ago
Eugene Vinitsky Ryan Moulton
Matches Policy & governance
“What if we just banned RL, idk. I never liked it anyways.” evidence ↗
Multiple readings Concern & critique · 1 Policy & governance · 1
Ryan Moulton: What if we just banned RL, idk. I never liked it anyways.
Eugene Vinitsky: Funnily enough this whole LLM thing was partially an attempt to get away from RL, which was viewed as inherently unsafe
Open the thread →